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Post by Arcanet on Sept 6, 2014 15:40:17 GMT -8
It pairs nicely with the assist rule, too.
To use DI's bomb on a boat example, everyone decides that they'll use a hero card for their assist attempts, to signify them REALLY focusing on the task.
Three players succeed in assisting, one of them only barely thanks to the hero card bringing up his attempt to yellow.
This gives the defusing player three turn ups, and as he was already on red, he will now flip four red cards and pick the best of them. They've played for a while, and it'd suck to be blown up, so he too uses a hero point.
"Six red cards, no way this will go wrong", he thinks.
"Okay folks, you can relax now, I got this" he says, smugly.
He places his hand on the resolution deck and prepares to turn the first card, and stops.
His heart skips a beat.
"I just shuffled the deck" he whispers to himself.
"8,33% chance of it all going up in smoke."
Tick.
Tock.
Tick.
Tock.
Tick.
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Post by Dashing Inventor on Sept 6, 2014 18:33:48 GMT -8
Here's a request for our Resident Mathematician: How much does "flip 3 and choose best" increase your chances for success? Turning up your attempt twice increases your chances by 40%, I am just curious how they compare...
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Ziphion
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Posts: 132
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Post by Ziphion on Sept 6, 2014 21:25:26 GMT -8
No problem! Here are the probabilities for unopposed flips. "Best double" means flip two cards of the given color and pick the best; "worst triple" means flip three and pick the worst; etc. I've grouped them into sections of very close probabilities.
Unopposed flips
worst triple blue: 9/36 * 8/35 * 7/34 = 1.18%
worst triple green: 15/36 * 14/35 * 13/34 = 6.37%
worst double blue: 9/36 * 8/35 = 5.71%
worst triple yellow: 21/36 * 20/35 * 19/34 = 18.63%
worst double green: 15/36 * 14/35 = 16.67%
single blue: 9/36 = 25%
worst triple red: 27/36 * 26/35 * 25/34 = 40.97%
worst double yellow: 21/36 * 20/35 = 33.33%
single green: 15/36 = 41.67%
best double blue: 1 - (27/36 * 26/35) = 44.29%
worst double red: 27/36 * 26/35 = 55.71%
single yellow: 21/36 = 58.33%
best double green: 1 - (21/36 * 20/35) = 66.67%
best triple blue: 1 - (27/36 * 26/35 * 25/34) = 59.03%
single red: 27/36 = 75%
best double yellow: 1 - (15/36 * 14/35) = 83.33%
best triple green: 1 - (21/36 * 20/35 * 19/34) = 81.37%
best double red: 1 - (9/36 * 8/35) = 94.29%
best triple yellow: 1 - (15/36 * 14/35 * 13/34) = 93.63%
best triple red: 1 - (9/36 * 8/35 * 7/34) = 98.82%
So you can see that, for example, flipping three blue cards and picking the best is approximately equivalent to flipping yellow. In terms of probability, simplifying the Hero Cards to just be deck rotations won't really change anything.
The same goes for opposed flips too. Against an "average" opponent deck (averaged results of win rates vs blue, green, yellow, and red opponents), here's what you get:
(sorry, I didn't test any "pick worst" multiflips here, only "pick best". Each value represents the average of 4 million simulated opposed flips)
Opposed flips
single blue: 35.95%
single green: 45.34%
best double blue: 45.75%
single yellow: 54.68%
best double green: 57.66%
best triple blue: 51.57%
single red: 64.06%
best double yellow: 67.58%
best triple green: 64.56%
best double red: 74.41%
best triple yellow: 73.72%
triple red: 78.85%
Edit: yay 100th post!
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Ziphion
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Posts: 132
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Post by Ziphion on Sept 7, 2014 6:31:33 GMT -8
I just realized that every time I've said "the chance of getting at least one critical when flipping three cards is greater than 25%" on this forum, my math was off. I was doing 3/36 + 3/35 + 3/34, which is wrong. The correct probability is 1 - (33/36 * 32/35 * 31/34), which is 23.59%.
The More You Know ♒★
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Ziphion
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Posts: 132
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Post by Ziphion on Sept 9, 2014 5:45:23 GMT -8
I was thinking about Complication cards this morning, and I was wondering... if their definition is simplified to mean "turn down your next attempt", then perhaps they don't need a printed card? Since there are other effects which turn up/down attempts without any sort of physical indication, and Complications would just stack with those.
Perhaps these special-case "turn-downs" don't even need to be referred to as Complications anymore, to simplify things further. Take for example Running. The rules could state that you can move double your speed, but then you must make an unopposed Build flip; if you fail, you turn down your next attempt.
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Post by Arcanet on Sept 9, 2014 5:58:53 GMT -8
I, on the other hand, like the Complications as a physical card. It could be that it helps me with tracking it, and I know I should turn down my attempt. Complications can stack, and Prolonged Complications are definitely something I want to know the exact amount of, at all times.
I have a few class and NPC powers that specifically deal with Complications, so I might be biased. ^^
For example:
Stand your ground (NNF)
Each friendly unit within (Charisma+1) squares gains Hit Points equal to the amount of Complications they currently have.
Give this Power to the GM after use.
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Ziphion
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Posts: 132
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Post by Ziphion on Sept 9, 2014 6:16:07 GMT -8
Ah, that's interesting, I like that power.
What if the complication cards were replaced with small, circular, one-inch diameter cardboard tokens with just the "turn down" symbol on them? You could potentially even make some "turn up" tokens as well.
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Post by Arcanet on Sept 9, 2014 6:24:56 GMT -8
You wouldn't even need to make separate tokens, they could be on the same token. Or a Complication token could be two-sided, with an 'M' and a 'P' in the middle for 'momentary' and 'prolonged', respectively.
Very good idea. Actually such a good idea I'm going to make those when I get home.
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mzum
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Post by mzum on Sept 9, 2014 6:28:13 GMT -8
Tokens are going to be more difficult to store. Double-Sided Complication cards though...
Either Momentary//Prolonged or Good//Bad (Turn up/Turn Down).
Both sound sexy.
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Post by Arcanet on Sept 9, 2014 6:31:36 GMT -8
The Hero card could also be two-sided, depending on if you'll play it for a double turn up, or a reflip.
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Ziphion
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Posts: 132
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Post by Ziphion on Sept 9, 2014 6:37:25 GMT -8
I'm not sure about the Hero cards idea, since you could potentially use them in a variety of situations (not just turn ups / reflips). And it's an instantaneous process to turn in a Hero card; unlike a complication which sits on the table, you just turn in a Hero card to use it, so it probably doesn't need anything printed on it besides "Hero Point" or whatever.
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Post by Arcanet on Sept 9, 2014 6:49:04 GMT -8
Mmh, you're right.
Oh.
OH.
What about a Power that would let you use a Hero Point to boost the effect?
To use the above example:
Each friendly unit within (Charisma+1) squares gains Hit Points equal to the amount of Complications they currently have.
Spend a Hero Point to increase the range and heal amount by one.
Give this Power to the GM after use.
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